Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
